The slowing-down pacing formula

It seems that the good old negative split is oft quoted as the fastest way to run a race, i.e. running the second half faster. I'd often wondered if this really was the case for a marathon. I know I really struggle to maintain pace, and that better training might correct this, but would I have really been faster overall if I'd gone off slower? I'd also read in Tim Noakes book that after 20 miles, certain physiological changes happen and the muscles lose elasticity making them less efficient. Is it really possible that a negative split is faster under these circumstances?

Then I read something in Hal Higdon’s book. A guy called George Myers has developed a pacing strategy which actually acknowledges that people generally slow down. I know Paula sped up during her world record, but he quotes the fact that Frank Shorter won Olympic gold slowing down. He’s developed his formula based on analysing the performances of many athletes. The norm is in fact to slow down, even amongst the elite. Only the very exceptional can run an even pace or a negative split.

Another problem last year was the crowds of runners getting in the way. I tried to run at even pace. Everybody else was slowing down; I slowed too but not as much. As the race progressed, my relative speed got higher and it became harder to run through the crowds. A pacing strategy with built in slowing seems ideal then. If you can’t beat them, join them!

So how does it work? He works out each mile split as a percentage of total time. Even pace would be where each mile is 3.817% of total time. He divides the race into chunks and allocates a greater percentage for the last miles than the first miles:

Myers’ Pace Table for 3:40 Marathon (8:24/mile average)

Mile	Percentage	Per-Mile Pace
0 – 12	3.756	8:16
12 – 18	3.8086	8:23
18 – 23	3.8725	8:31
23 – 26	3.950	8:41

So this is perfect. I can go off at what will hopefully be a comfortable pace, and then slow down to still achieve my sub 3:45 marathon, with a safety margin of 5 minutes to allow for hold-ups (e.g. where the starts merge, or Cutty Sark).

Who knows? Maybe at 20 miles I’ll feel great and won’t need to slow down!