If you look at A study in loss of fitness, you will see the result of the lay-off in terms of loss of pace on the treadmill.
The plot below is the comparison of my heart rate on the treadmill from 4 weeks ago in blue, with today's plot in red. The first 3 miles are the same 9.6 km/h; the 4th mile 4 weeks ago was a cool down, hence a lower HR. The time line is as follows:

If we count the second week as a neutral week, just trying to avoid losing any more fitness, then it seems that the 2 for 1 rule is correct!
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